It’s hard to know what to say regarding the staggering volatility and uncertainty that has recently characterized political and economic conditions, much less predict how they will play out over either the short or long term. As of the week ending April 4th, both consumer confidence and financial markets have seen enormous declines. Whether this will continue, or reverse direction is unknown: Policies, actions and reactions have been changing very quickly in 2025.
Uncertainty, much less economic pessimism and plunging household wealth, is not typically a positive factor for housing markets, and increasing affluence from stock gains has played a large role in stimulating demand since late 2023. Unfortunately, interest rates have been climbing as well amid the shock of these developments, and tariffs and new immigration policies will almost certainly increase home construction costs. However, the current administration maintains that any short-term pain will be far outweighed by positive, long-term economic benefits.
Numbers pertaining to closed-sales data in this report mostly reflect market conditions that predate the most dramatic of recent financial developments. (Because of the typical 3 to 6 week time lapse between deals being made, i.e. listings going into contract, and sales closing escrow, sales data is a lagging indicator of market trends.) The quantifiable, hard-data effects of these new circumstances, should they continue, will come into better focus in coming weeks and months.
Generally speaking, through March 2025, Bay Area markets strengthened as the spring selling season gained steam: Sales volume and overbidding increased, and homes sold more quickly. The quantity of new and active listings rose across the Bay Area – sometimes very substantially – though San Francisco saw among the smallest increases. Luxury home sales out-performed the overall market, as affluent buyers continued to play an outsized role in Q1. Specifics pertaining to the San Francisco market follow within this report.
DISCLAIMER: Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.